Iyada oo kobaca 5G, AI iyo suuqyada xisaabinta ee waxqabadka sare leh, baahida loo qabo sidayaasha IC, gaar ahaan kuwa ABF, ayaa qarxay.Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyadoo ay ugu wacan tahay awoodda xaddidan ee alaab-qeybiyeyaasha ku habboon, saadka ABF
sidayaal waa gabaabsi, qiimuhuna wuu sii kordhayaa.Warshaduhu waxay filayaan in dhibaatada sahayda ciriiriga ah ee taarikada ABF ay sii socon karto ilaa 2023. Xaaladdan oo kale, afar warshadood oo waaweyn oo xamuul ah oo ku yaal Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, Jingshuo iyo Zhending KY, ayaa bilaabay qorshayaasha balaadhinta taarigga ABF sanadkan, iyadoo wadarta kharashka raasumaalka ah ee ka badan NT $65 (qiyaastii RMB 15.046 bilyan) ee dhul weynaha iyo dhirta Taiwan.Intaa waxaa dheer, Ibiden ee Japan iyo Shinko, South Korea's motor Samsung iyo Dade electronics ayaa sii ballaariyay maalgashigooda taarikada ABF.
Baahida iyo qiimaha guddiga shirkadda ABF ayaa si aad ah u kacaya, yaraantuna waxay sii socon kartaa ilaa 2023
Substrate-ka IC waxaa lagu sameeyay iyadoo lagu saleynayo guddiga HDI (guddiga wareegga isku xirka cufnaanta sare), kaas oo leh astaamaha cufnaanta sare, saxnaanta sare, yaraynta iyo khafiifinta.Sida walxaha dhexdhexaadka ah ee isku xira chip-ka iyo guddiga wareegga ee habka baakadaha chip-ka, shaqada udub-dhexaadka ah ee guddiga xamuulka ee ABF waa in la sameeyo cufnaanta sare iyo xawaaraha sare ee xiriirka isku xirka chip-ka, ka dibna isku xira guddiga PCB weyn iyada oo loo marayo khadadka badan. on guddiga IC side, kaas oo ka ciyaara doorka isku xirka, si loo ilaaliyo daacadnimada wareegga, la yareeyo qulqulka, hagaajinta booska khadka Waxay ku habboon tahay in si fiican loo daadiyo kulaylka chip si loo ilaaliyo jajabka, iyo xitaa dhajinta dabacsanaan iyo firfircoon qalabka si loo gaaro hawlaha nidaamka qaarkood.
Waqtigan xaadirka ah, goobta baakadaha dhamaadka-sare, side IC waxa ay noqotay qayb lama huraan ah oo baakadaha chip.Xogtu waxay muujinaysaa in wakhtigan xaadirka ah, saamiga sidaha IC ee kharashka guud ee baakadaha uu gaadhay ilaa 40%.
Ka mid ah sidayaal IC, waxaa jira inta badan ABF (Ajinomoto build up film) sidayaal iyo BT sidayaal iyadoo loo eegayo waddooyinka farsamada ee kala duwan sida nidaamka resin CLL.
Waxaa ka mid ah, ABF board board waxaa inta badan loo isticmaalaa chips-ka xisaabinta sare sida CPU, GPU, FPGA iyo ASIC.Ka dib marka jajabyadan la soo saaro, badanaa waxay u baahan yihiin in lagu baakadeeyo guddiga ABF ka hor inta aan la isugu keenin guddiga PCB ee weyn.Mar alla markii shirkadda ABF ay meesha ka baxdo, shirkadaha waaweyn ee ay ka mid yihiin Intel iyo AMD kama baxsan karaan qaddarka in chip-ka aan la rarin karin.Muhiimadda sidaha ABF waa la arki karaa.
Tan iyo qeybtii labaad ee sannadkii hore, iyada oo ay ugu wacan tahay kobaca 5g, xisaabinta daruuraha AI, adeegayaasha iyo suuqyada kale, baahida loo qabo xisaabinta waxqabadka sare (HPC) ayaa si weyn u kordhay.Marka lagu daro kobaca baahida suuqa ee xafiiska guriga / madadaalada, baabuurta iyo suuqyada kale, baahida loo qabo CPU, GPU iyo chips AI ee dhinaca terminalka ayaa aad u kordhay, taas oo sidoo kale kor u qaaday baahida loo qabo guddiyada ABF.Marka lagu daro saameynta shilka dabka ee warshadda Ibiden Qingliu, warshad weyn oo IC ah, iyo warshadda Xinxing Electronic Shanying, shirkadaha ABF ee adduunka ayaa ah kuwo aad u yar.
Bishii Febraayo ee sanadkan, waxaa suuqa ka jiray war sheegaya in taarikada ABF ay aad u yaraatay, wareegga dhalmada ayaa ahaa ilaa 30 toddobaad.Iyada oo gabaabnida saxanka side ABF, qiimuhu sidoo kale wuu sii kordhay.Xogtu waxay muujinaysaa in tan iyo rubuci afraad ee sannadkii hore, qiimaha boodhka xambaara IC uu sii waday inuu kordho, oo ay ku jiraan guddiga xambaara BT ilaa 20%, halka ABF board board 30% - 50%.
Maaddaama awoodda side ABF ay inta badan gacanta ugu jirto dhowr warshadood oo Taiwan, Japan iyo South Korea ah, balaadhintooda wax soo saarku waxa ay sidoo kale ahayd mid xadidan waagii hore, taas oo sidoo kale adkeynaysa in la yareeyo yaraanta sahayda ABF ee gaaban. muddada.
Sidaa darteed, soosaarayaal badan oo baakadaha iyo tijaabinta waxay bilaabeen inay soo jeediyaan in macaamiisha dhamaadka ay beddelaan habka wax soo saarka ee qaybo ka mid ah habka BGA ee u baahan ABF side habka QFN, si looga fogaado dib u dhaca shixnadda sababtoo ah awood la'aanta in la jadwaleeyo awoodda side ABF .
Soo-saareyaasha shirkaduhu waxay sheegeen in hadda, warshad kasta oo xamuul ah aysan haysan meel awood badan oo ay kula xiriirto dalabaadka "kuyuuga boodada" oo leh qiime sare oo halbeeg ah, wax walbana waxaa u badan macaamiisha kuwaas oo markii hore hubiyay awoodda.Hadda macaamiisha qaar ayaa xitaa ka hadlay awoodda iyo 2023,
Markii hore, warbixinta cilmi-baarista ee Goldman Sachs ayaa sidoo kale muujisay in inkasta oo la ballaariyay awoodda ABF side ee IC side Nandian ee warshad Kunshan ee dhul weynaha Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa inuu bilaabo rubuci labaad ee sanadkan, sababtoo ah kordhinta wakhtiga bixinta qalabka loo baahan yahay wax soo saarka. balaadhinta ilaa 8 ~ 12 bilood, awoodda side ABF ee caalamiga ahi waxay korodhay kaliya 10% ~ 15% sanadkan, laakiin baahida suuqa ayaa sii socota inay sii xoogeysato, guud ahaan faraqa baahida saadka ayaa la filayaa inay adkaato in la yareeyo 2022.
Labada sano ee soo socota, iyada oo kobaca joogtada ah ee baahida kombuyuutarrada, server-yada daruuraha iyo chips AI, baahida loo qabo sideyaasha ABF ayaa sii wadi doonta inay kordhiso.Intaa waxaa dheer, dhismaha shabakadda 5g ee caalamiga ah waxay sidoo kale cuni doontaa tiro badan oo ah sidayaal ABF.
Intaa waxaa dheer, hoos u dhaca sharciga Moore, soosaarayaasha chip waxay sidoo kale bilaabeen inay si aad ah u isticmaalaan tignoolajiyada baakadaha horumarsan si ay u sii wadaan kor u qaadista faa'iidooyinka dhaqaale ee sharciga Moore.Tusaale ahaan, tignoolajiyada Chiplet, oo si xoog leh loogu horumaray warshadaha, waxay u baahan tahay cabbirka xambaara ABF weyn iyo wax-soo-saarka hooseeya.Waxaa la filayaa inay sii wanaajiso baahida loo qabo side ABF.Marka loo eego saadaasha Machadka Cilmi-baarista Warshadaha ee Tuopu, celceliska dalabka bil kasta ee taargooyinka xamuulka qaada ABF ee caalamiga ah wuxuu ka kori doonaa 185 milyan ilaa 345 milyan laga bilaabo 2019 ilaa 2023, iyadoo korodhka kobaca sanadlaha ah ee 16.9%.
Warshadihii waaweynaa ee soo rarnaa saxanadda ayaa midba mid u balaadhiyey wax soo saarkooda
Iyadoo la eegayo yaraanta joogtada ah ee taarikada xamuulka ee ABF hadda iyo koritaanka joogtada ah ee baahida suuqa mustaqbalka, afar warshadood oo waaweyn oo IC ah oo ku yaal Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, Jingshuo iyo Zhending KY, ayaa bilaabay qorshayaasha ballaarinta wax soo saarka sanadkan, iyadoo wadarta kharashka raasumaalka ah ee ka badan NT $65 (qiyaastii RMB 15.046 bilyan) in lagu maalgeliyo warshado ku yaal dhul weynaha iyo Taiwan.Intaa waxaa dheer, Ibiden ee Japan iyo Shinko ayaa sidoo kale soo gabagabeeyey 180 bilyan yen iyo 90 bilyan yen mashaariicda ballaarinta xambaara siday u kala horreeyaan.Korantada Kuuriyada Koonfureed ee Samsung iyo Dade electronics ayaa sidoo kale sii ballaariyay maalgashigooda.
Afarta warshadood ee ay Taiwan maalgeliso IC, kharashka raasumaalka ee ugu badan sanadkan waxa uu ahaa Xinxing, oo ah warshadda hormuudka ka ah, taas oo gaartay NT $36.221 bilyan (qiyaastii RMB 8.884 bilyan), taasoo ka dhigan in ka badan 50% maalgashiga afarta warshadood, iyo ayaa kordhay 157% marka la barbar dhigo NT $14.087 bilyan sanadkii hore.Xinxing ayaa afar jeer kor u qaaday kharashkeeda raasumaalka sanadkan, taasoo muujinaysa xaaladda hadda jirta ee ah in suuqu gabaabsi yahay.Intaa waxaa dheer, Xinxing waxay saxiixday heshiisyo saddex sano ah oo waqti dheer ah macaamiisha qaar si looga fogaado khatarta ah in baahida suuqa ay dib u noqoto.
Nandian waxa ay qorshaynaysaa in ay ku kharash garayso ugu yaraan NT $8 bilyan (qiyaastii RMB 1.852 bilyan) caasimada sanadkan, iyada oo korodhka sanadlaha ah in ka badan 9%.Isla mar ahaantaana, waxay sidoo kale fulin doontaa mashruuc maalgashi oo NT $ 8 ah labada sano ee soo socota si loo ballaariyo khadka rarka guddiga ABF ee warshadda Taiwan Shulin.Waxaa la filayaa in la furo awoodda rarka guddiga cusub laga bilaabo dhammaadka 2022 ilaa 2023.
Waad ku mahadsan tahay taageerada xooggan ee shirkadda waalidka ee Heshuo group, Jingshuo waxay si firfircoon u ballaarisay awoodda wax soo saarka ee shirkadda ABF.Kharashka raasumaalka ee sanadkan, oo ay ku jiraan iibka dhulka iyo balaadhinta wax soo saarka, ayaa lagu qiyaasay inuu ka badan yahay NT $10 bilyan, oo ay ku jiraan NT $4.485 bilyan oo dhul iibsi ah iyo dhismayaal ku yaal Myrica rubra.Marka lagu daro maalgashiga asalka ah ee iibka qalabka iyo habka debottlenecking ee ballaarinta shirkadda ABF, wadarta kharashka raasumaalka ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho in ka badan 244% marka la barbardhigo sannadkii hore, Waa warshadda labaad ee xamuulka qaada ee Taiwan oo kharashkeeda raasumaalka ah. ayaa dhaaftay NT $10 bilyan.
Marka la eego istaraatiijiyada iibsashada hal-joojin sannadihii la soo dhaafay, kooxda Zhending kaliya kuma aysan guuleysan inay faa'iido ka hesho ganacsiga BT-ga ee jira waxayna sii wadeen inay labanlaabaan awoodeeda wax soo saar, laakiin sidoo kale gudaha waxay soo gabagabeeyeen istiraatiijiyadda shanta sano ee qaabeynta side waxayna bilaabeen inay tallaabo qaadaan. galay side ABF.
Halka balaarinta baaxadda weyn ee Taiwan ee awoodda side ABF, Japan iyo Kuuriyada Koonfureed qorshayaasha balaarinta awoodda baaxadda leh ayaa sidoo kale dardargelinaya dhawaanahan.
Ibiden, oo ah xamuul weyn oo saxan qaada ah oo ku sugan dalka Japan, ayaa soo gabagabeeyey qorshe balaarineed xadiidka xamuulka qaada oo dhan 180 bilyan yen (qiyaastii 10.606 bilyan yuan), isaga oo ujeedadiisu tahay in la abuuro qiimo wax soo saar ah oo ka badan 250 bilyan yen sanadka 2022, una dhiganta ilaa US $2.13 bilyan.Shinko, oo ah shirkad kale oo Japan ah oo soo saarta iyo alaab-qeybiye muhiim ah oo Intel ah, ayaa sidoo kale soo gabagabeeyey qorshe ballaarin ah oo ah 90 bilyan yen (qiyaastii 5.303 bilyan yuan).Waxaa la filayaa in awoodda qaaduhu ay kordho 40% sanadka 2022 dakhliguna wuxuu gaari doonaa ilaa US $1.31 bilyan.
Intaa waxaa dheer, matoorka Samsung ee Kuuriyada Koonfureed wuxuu kordhiyey saamiga dakhliga rarida taarikada in ka badan 70% sannadkii hore oo uu sii waday maalgashiga.Dade electronics, oo ah warshad kale oo lagu raro saxanada Kuuriyada Koonfureed, ayaa sidoo kale u beddeshay warshadeeda HDI warshad rarista ABF, iyada oo ujeedadu tahay in la kordhiyo dakhliga ku habboon ugu yaraan US $ 130 milyan sanadka 2022.
Waqtiga boostada: Agoosto-26-2021